What's the problem with electric cars?

[Kev0607]

Trump reckons if he becomes President again that he'll ditch electric. The world will follow.

[Tannaton]

Originally Posted by Thekilt

This article (https://www.lexology.com/library/det...core%20network.) outlines the EUs plan for Hydrogen, which may explain why more manufacturers arent necessarily pulling away from electric, but also expanding into the Hydrogen market. In the past Shell has pulled out of contracts supplying fuel cell refueling stations due to the lack of demand for them. Norway for example only registered 2 hydrogen fuel cars registered in 2023 (https://www.hydrogeninsight.com/tran...ay/2-1-1592413)
This is a bit of a chicken and egg scenario, as people wont buy these until there is a location to re-fill, yet the re-filling stations wont be introduced until there is a demand.

EVs sales, particulary second hand market has plummeted but this is mainly due to the Government pushing back the EV only 2030 goal to 2050. Not sure of the figures behind who lives in flats/houses, but that will also be the big adoption factor. Locally to me (within a 30 house radius) we now have approximately 7 EV cars between us which isnt bad, however most houses have 2 cars, so then the figure is not so good when you double it.

I do firmly believe the future will be a mix of things, but predominantly hydrogen, whether that is hydrogen combustion engines or hydrogen fuel cell electric. They key benefit of hydrogen is it has the potential to be retrofitted to many current vehicles, that's especially important. Another factor will be synthetic fuel. Battery EV's will be like the compact fluorescent bulbs of 30 years ago - a step forward at the time but quickly rendered obsolete but other technologies (LED), except for a few specific uses.

For anyone interested in it, I would point them to look at the work JCB are doing, they have already hydrogen engines which are the same size and produce the same power as diesel.

I don't believe the Government pushing back the proposed ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 5 years has had any material effect on the demand for EV's - why should it? You will still be allowed to use older ICE cars after that date.

The real issue is everyone who was minded to get an electric car has probably got one now (company car drivers on low BIK rates or so minded private buyers). What's hit the industry very hard is the collapse in used values which is driving up the cost of leases and PCP's - this is driven by the inevitability of a bill larger than the cars value for a new battery when it gets to a certain age or mileage - say 7 years old or 150k - at which point the residual value will be that of a half eaten Mars bar. I think this will be eased when more aftermarket battery repair and replacement solutions come available.

[Whippy]

Oh I accept all of the above
Meanwhile, one, just one refinery in India is currently pumping out 100 million gallons A DAY! Me driving a battery car really isn't going to actually achieve anything.

[Kev0607]

Originally Posted by Tannaton

I do firmly believe the future will be a mix of things, but predominantly hydrogen, whether that is hydrogen combustion engines or hydrogen fuel cell electric. They key benefit of hydrogen is it has the potential to be retrofitted to many current vehicles, that's especially important. Another factor will be synthetic fuel. Battery EV's will be like the compact fluorescent bulbs of 30 years ago - a step forward at the time but quickly rendered obsolete but other technologies (LED), except for a few specific uses.

For anyone interested in it, I would point them to look at the work JCB are doing, they have already hydrogen engines which are the same size and produce the same power as diesel.

I don't believe the Government pushing back the proposed ban on sales of new petrol and diesel cars by 5 years has had any material effect on the demand for EV's - why should it? You will still be allowed to use older ICE cars after that date.

The real issue is everyone who was minded to get an electric car has probably got one now (company car drivers on low BIK rates or so minded private buyers). What's hit the industry very hard is the collapse in used values which is driving up the cost of leases and PCP's - this is driven by the inevitability of a bill larger than the cars value for a new battery when it gets to a certain age or mileage - say 7 years old or 150k - at which point the residual value will be that of a half eaten Mars bar. I think this will be eased when more aftermarket battery repair and replacement solutions come available.

Yes, if the ICE cars meet the emissions agenda they're pushing. In my opinion, these emissions zones will be rolled out across more of the country... its just a matter of time.

ULEZ has forced people that live in these zones to get rid of their older petrol and diesel cars, unless they pay £12.50 a day to enter/exit these areas. At the moment, these cars can be sold in other parts of the country where there's no ULEZ zones (yet) or exported abroad, where it seems, they don't care about the emissions zones.

In essence, if you have the money, its fine to drive your older vehicle in these zones... You pay to pollute, that's the reality of it. For those that can't afford a newer car that meets emissions standards, they're forgotten about and have to rely on alternative means of transport. Its not just about clean air, it generates vast amounts of money. Be under no illusion.

Pollution levels in this country are very low, as we're on an island surrounded by water with wind coming from all directions. The countries that have far worse pollution levels than here are doing very little (India for example). Yet in the UK, we have clean air zones charging motorists for driving non-compliant cars. Its a scam. Look at London underground... you can smell the fumes in the air and it stings your eyes. No electric push underground though...

[Tannaton]

Originally Posted by Kev0607

In essence, if you have the money, its fine to drive your older vehicle in these zones... You pay to pollute, that's the reality of it. For those that can't afford a newer car that meets emissions standards, they're forgotten about and have to rely on alternative means of transport. Its not just about clean air, it generates vast amounts of money. Be under no illusion.

Indeed....

Boss has a 17-plate V8 diesel Range Rover. Works in Birmingham, pays nothing to enter clean air zone as it's Euro 6. His secretary had a 15-plate Polo diesel. Does 70 mpg but still costs her £8 per day...

[foggyjames]

I mean the Tube is electric...it's a long time since the Met was steam powered, and the deep Tube never has been! The issue down there is from wheel/rail wear, and the brakes. But yes, it's a fair point.

They could massively improve the issue by upgrading everything to work like the Elizabeth Line (platforms which appear to be separated from the running lines, not just an open-topped security screen like parts of the Jub, and air-conditioned trains with (I assume) filtered air), but that would cost a bit...!

cheers

James

[Kev0607]

Originally Posted by foggyjames

I mean the Tube is electric...it's a long time since the Met was steam powered, and the deep Tube never has been! The issue down there is from wheel/rail wear, and the brakes. But yes, it's a fair point.

They could massively improve the issue by upgrading everything to work like the Elizabeth Line (platforms which appear to be separated from the running lines, not just an open-topped security screen like parts of the Jub, and air-conditioned trains with (I assume) filtered air), but that would cost a bit...!

cheers

James

Well yes, the underground tube is electric. Ventilation definitely needs to improved. Breathing brake dust in can't be good either.

Another point that's worth mentioning is a video I seen the other night on YouTube. An electric car on average takes 80,000 miles to become "green" and a big pick-up like an F150 takes 150,000 miles.

Is this move to electric really as "green" as people make think?

[Whippy]

It's interesting to see the scramble to find alternatives, I agree totally that hydrogen is a shoe in for some applications, ammonia is now being considered as a potential alternative while lots of research is happening around new battery technology, in particular dry cell units which last longer, hold more charge, are lighter and, importantly, cheaper. I also believe that ice vehicles will become a slightly more 'niche' alternative and will continue to survive into the future.

I'm (personally) regarding current cell technology to be the equivalent of the cassette tape. All the rage but ultimately doomed.

It's all terrifically exciting what!

[FreshAir]

Current Li-Ion battery technology is definitely going to become very old school and unwanted in the next few years. There are too many cell producers working on far better cell technology. I don't expect motor and control technology will advance significantly though.

Not so sure Hydrogen is going to reach mainstream in cars though, too much inefficiency in production IMO.

On a side note prompted by a door handle discussion on here, you don't want to be in the rear of a Tesla as if the electrics fail, there is no way to open the rear doors without knowing where a hidden handle is that you would not find in an emergency. The internal door opening is electrically powered which is simply bonkers and defies belief that legislation actually allows it. I suspect the legislators didn't even think a manufacturer would do something so daft as to have no mechanical door opening facility.

[foggyjames]

I think "interesting times" is a good way to look at it. Vehicle technology was largely stagnant for 30-40years, but we're in the middle of seeing some major shifts. What we need, though, is sensible analysis, not hysteria (whether from owners, onlookers...or legislators!).

cheers

James